Cambridge Energy Forum and The Cambridge
Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), University
of Cambridge held a joint-seminar
at the Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge.
The "Rebound Effect" is also known as the "Jevons Paradox" and it
is the effect whereby increased energy efficiency can increase,
not decrease, energy consumption. It has immediate political
implications and is still widely misunderstood. The event will
describe: a) what the rebound effect is b) how it manifests
itself c) what we can do about it.
When the rebound effect is greater than 100%, then this is the
Khazzoom-Brookes (K-B) postulate: "if energy prices do not change, cost effective energy efficiency improvements will inevitably increase economy-wide energy consumption above what it would be without those improvements."
Click here for a list of publications related to "the rebound effect".
Full details of this meeting also appear on the 4CMR website:
www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/eeprg/4cmr/.
Energy efficiency measures must be accompanied by policies to cap carbon emissions and put a price on carbon. This was the message from a seminar on the rebound effect, organised by 4CMR and the Cambridge Energy Forum. Energy savings from increased efficiency are almost never as high as they appear, because people or businesses increase energy use in response to the saving, either in the same energy activity or elsewhere. While it remains difficult to precisely quantify this rebound effect, it is clear that it is very unlikely to be zero.
The latest economic modelling research, carried out by Terry Barker, Athanasios Dagoumas and Jonathan Rubin of 4CMR, estimates that the global rebound effect would be around 50% by 2030, in response to ‘no regret’ energy efficiency measures proposed by the International Energy Agency. Earlier research suggested that the rebound effect was about 25% for UK energy efficiency policies.
Press coverage: the Guardian
Presentations from "On the Rebound: could energy efficiency improvements backfire?" available here:
The rebound effect: Mechanisms, evidence and implications
Steve Sorrell, Sussex Energy Group
The Global Macroeconomic Rebound Effect of Energy Efficiency Policies: an analysis 2012-2030 using E3MG
Dr Terry Barker, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
Responses to increased energy efficiency in the real world
Prof Roger Kemp, Lancaster University
The Rebound Effect: introduction and historical perspective
Blake Alcott, Independent Researcher
Speakers, panelist and chairs included:
- Hugh Parnell, Cambridge Energy Forum
- Dr Terry Barker, 4CMR, University of Cambridge
- Dr Philip Sargent, Cambridge Energy Forum
- Steven Sorrell, University of Sussex
- Blake Alcott, independent researcher
- Prof Roger Kemp, Lancaster University
- Dr Tim Foxon, University of Leeds
- Tina Dallman, DECC
Programme: On the rebound: could energy efficiency
improvements backfire?
The event was chaired by Hugh Parnell
13:30 Coffee and registration
14:00 Welcome
Dr Terry Barker and Dr Philip Sargent
14:10 The rebound effect: introduction and historical
perspective
Blake Alcott
14:35 Global macroeconomic rebound effect
Dr Terry Barker
15:00 The rebound effect - evidence and implications
Steven Sorell
15:25 Responses to increased energy efficiency in the real
world
Prof Roger Kemp
15:50 Tea break
16:20 Panel session and questions: What we can do about it?
Chair: Dr Terry Barker
Panelists: Dr Tim Foxon, Prof Roger Kemp, Steven Sorrell, Tina
Dallman
17:10 Concluding remarks
Dr Terry Barker and Dr Philip Sargent
Attendance was free, but prior registration was required.
Hugh Parnell co-founder Cambridge Energy Forum,
Chairman Envirotech Ltd, manager Cambridge Network
“cleantech” SIG, non-exec NW Brown and of several
other companies, corporate finance, early stage business support
etc Since qualifying as a chartered accountant Hugh has had a
diverse career centred around finance, management and business
development. With 16 years in diverse roles with British
Petroleum followed by 6 years in the City doing international
corporate finance, he had had enough flying around when, in 2000,
he joined the Cambridge technology/innovation community. NW Brown
is a regional finance advisory company, where Hugh initially
headed a corporate finance activity and then took responsibility
for its early stage VC, business angels and ‘access to
finance’ activities around high-tech Cambridge. He acquired
mandates amounting to managing a suite of early stage venture
funds totalling £40m. Since early 2007 Hugh has divided his
time between consulting to the NW Brown Group and its legacy
business angels and the early stage funds’ activities, and
engaging with other companies directly to help with their growth
and development. He is a ‘mentor’ for ExDRA, consults
to the UEA’s Low Carbon Innovation Centre, helps the
Cambridge Network, i10, ICAEW, ARU and similar. Since 2002 he has
been involved in supporting environmental and energy technology
companies i) as Chairman of business support organisation
Envirotech Ltd, ii) co-founding the Cambridge Energy Forum and
iii) starting the Special Interest Group on
‘cleantech’ for the Cambridge Network.
Dr Terry Barker is Director of 4CMR (Cambridge Centre for Climate Change
Mitigation Research), Department of Land Economy, University
of Cambridge, Leader of the Tyndall Centre's Integrated Modelling
programme of research and Chairman of Cambridge Econometrics. He
was a Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) in the IPCC Third Assessment
Report (2001) and the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) for the
chapter on mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective, covering
the macroeconomic costs of mitigation at national, regional and
global levels in the short and medium term (to 2030). Research
interests are in GHG mitigation policy, large-scale computable
energy-environment-economy and world energy modelling. He has
directed and co-ordinated many large projects building and
applying large-scale economic models of the UK, the European
Union and the global economy. He has edited or authored some 12
books and 100 articles and papers.
Dr Philip Sargent is a co-founder of the Cambridge
Energy Forum and takes a lead in developing its programme of
work. He has extensive knowledge of energy technologies
internationally and in 2009 spent a month in Jakarta advising
government departments on climate change policies. Philip had had
a university research career as a physical metallurgist working
in product design and materials selection at Cambridge, Technion
and Carnegie Mellon universities where he was a visiting
professor.
Blake Alcott grew up in the Oil Capitol of the World
(Tulsa, Oklahoma), got a B.A. in philosophy from Connecticut
Wesleyan in 1968, dropped out in Manhattan, did his obligatory
full-bearded motorcycle trip around the world, migrated to
Zürich in 1973, worked as a self-employed cabinetmaker till
2001 and has since read and written on ecological economics,
including a year actually learning something while getting an
MPhil in Land Economy (the research Option A) in 2006. Please go
to www.blakealcott.org
for a list of publications, accessible as pdfs except for a book
chapter from Earthscan’s 2008 title The Jevons
Paradox.
Steven Sorell trained as an electrical engineer and
spent four years working in industrial R&D laboratories before
gaining a MSc in Science & Technology Policy in 1990. Since
joining SPRU he has undertaken a range of research on energy and
environmental policy, with particular focus on energy modelling,
energy efficiency and emissions trading. This work is primarily
informed by economics and has included case studies, statistical
analysis and modelling. Steve has published three books, eighteen
papers in refereed journals, twelve book chapters and more than
one hundred research reports. He has acted as consultant to the
European Commission, DEFRA, DTI/BERR, the Environment Agency, the
Sustainable Development Commission, private sector organisations
and NGOs. Steve is currently deputy director of the ESRC-funded
Sussex Energy Group (SEG) and co-managing the Technology and
Policy Assessment function of the UK Energy Research Centre
(UKERC). He current research projects include energy use and
sustainability in UK freight transport (SEG) and global oil
depletion (UKERC).
Prof Roger Kemp is in the Engineering Department at
Lancaster University. Prior to joining academia in 2003, he spent
almost 30 years in the rail industry. In the 1970s he was in BR
Research Department. In 1979 he left to join the Lucas Electric
Vehicle Project as Development Manager. Two years later he
rejoined the rail industry as Development Manager at GEC
Traction. Later he became Engineering Director of GEC
Transportation Projects where he was responsible for the
engineering of projects as diverse as the Class 91 locomotive,
Docklands Light Railway and systems integration on Line 4 of
Seoul Subway. After the merger forming Alstom, Roger moved to
France and spent two years as Directeur des Études
d’Ensemble in the Paris head office and was later appointed
Project Director of the consortium building Eurostar.
Subsequently he worked on projects in Australia and Taiwan and,
from 1997, was UK Technical and Safety Director for Alstom
Transport. He retains his rail interests in Lancaster University
as well as being a member of the sustainable energy group and is
course director for the MSc in Safety Engineering.
Dr Tim Foxon is a Research Councils UK Academic Fellow
in the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of
Leeds, focusing on exploring the conditions for the innovation
and up-take of new energy technologies. He previously held
research positions in the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change
Mitigation Research (4CMR) at the University of Cambridge, and at
the Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT) at Imperial
College London. His research interests include transition
pathways, policy drivers and barriers for sustainable innovation,
UK renewables innovation systems, macro-economic rebound effects
and the application of complexity and evolutionary economics to
sustainability issues. He has published a number of academic
papers and policy reports, an edited book on ‘Innovation
for a Low Carbon Economy’, and a report on low-carbon
innovation for the Carbon Trust which has been widely cited.
Tina Dallman is an economic adviser in the Department
of Energy and Climate Change currently working on domestic energy
efficiency policies. She began her career at the Office of Fair
trading as a competition economist before moving on to the Energy
Group at the Department of Trade and Industry covering roles
related to coal, electricity, oil and gas. As a member of the
UK's climate change team she was a lead negotiator of the Kyoto
Protocol and also spent three years working for the United
Nations Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn.
If you are interested in this event, please consider becoming a
member of the Cambridge Energy Forum. This will give you
several additional benefits. There are additional benefits for organisations
wishing to sponsor the Forum of its events.